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Dr. Tomorrow  




Lessons From the Future


Dr. Tomorrow 
drtomorrow@shaw.com

JUST HOW MANY ARE ON THE WEB?

01 Jan 2001

The art of estimating how many are online throughout the world is an inexact one at best. Surveys abound, using all sorts of measurement parameters. However, from observing several published surveys over the last two years, here is an educated guess by NUA Inc. of Dublin, Ireland of the number of people online worldwide as of January 2001:

World Total                407.10 million 
Africa                       3.11 million 
Asia/Pacific               104.88 million 
Europe                     113.14 million 
Middle East                  2.40 million 
Canada & USA               167.12 million 
South America               16.45 million 
Internet growth (dull, dry static print) has exploded astronomically since the basic Net was overlaid with the World Wide Web (colorful dynamic visuals). No other technology ever developed this fast.

It took radio 37 years to reach 50 million listeners. Even television took 17 years to reach the same audience. The Internet itself was around for three decades and never did reach 50 million. But the World Wide Web (WWW) captured the same number of people in just over three years. Nothing else on this planet at least, has reached an audience of 250 million so quickly.

Is this a sign of things to come? The next hot communications device? Digital cell phones can do wonders. Soon they will carry video like they now carry voice and text. Right after that you will be able to plug your 10-ounce videocamera into the base of your phone and broadcast around the world over the WWW for little cost. Your still photo digital camera take a picture of your kid catching a fish and have the picture in grandma's home on another continent before your offspring can get the hook out of the fish's mouth.

Look how "Instant Coffee" captured the world. That was the start. From now on if you can't get the technology you want NOW, you'll switch suppliers.

With 250 million people (about four percent of the current earth population) now on the Internet/WWW, you can see what anguish (for the know-nots) and ecstasy (for the knows) has done for computer growth. Imagine a planet with ONE BILLION people on the Internet/WWW regularly. This level will be likely be reached before Year 2005 or earlier. Numbers have been doubling every year, starting in the days of early adapters and hackers. Many businesses staked a claim in the new bonanza as the third millennium approached. From here on in the WWW will be essential to economic survival. My 1998 comment still holds:

If you don't become part of this bulldozer of change, you're going to be part of the road..

My estimate of an Internet/WWW audience of one billion is not an idle guess. Prices have been dropping like stones while stock in web-based companies have been rising like a hot air balloon during a cold dawn. Computers are becoming affordable everywhere. Some are now under $500. Some companies GIVE THEM AWAY, when you sign up for the Internet service for three years. Service averages around $20 a month.

The lower prices and technological advances that will be spawned by increasing participants will cause even more price declines as production of parts shoots upward and prices dive again.

Another factor now cuts into the cornucopia. The microchip continues to fertilize early adapters who got in not on the ground floor (that saying is so 20th century) but on the excavation for the 21st century, and who are now upgrading. Big time!

Many computer buffs that got going early have done well financially. When they start laying out big dough for Apple Super Computers with their billion-calculations-a-second-speed and the extraordinarily spectacular Cinema Display Screens, another plateau will be created.

There are now numerous markets in the computer field. All points on the economic spectrum can now find their level. This is merely the beginning.

Prepare for the miracles to come.

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·Sept 2000
The Floating Cyberden
New Palette -- Paint DNA
The Ultimate Newscaster
Photo - Fun

·Oct 2000
Separate Economy & State
World of ResidentSea
Importance of Self-Promotion
Computer In The Book
Bio-Tech Pets

·Nov 2000
Internet Expanding
Crystal Balls
Super Cavitation
The Soul Catcher

·Dec 03, 2000
Real Magic - Holography

·Jan 2001
How Many Are On The Web?
Vancouver Getting Greener
The Sound Of Change
The Rise Of The Icontenti

·Feb 2001
The Green Marble
The Galileo Effect Part I
The Galileo Effect - Part II
Parents Care

·March 2001
Persian Gulf: Economic Revolution
New Tool: Chaos Management
Mallorca Magic
The Price To Pay For Resisting Change

·April 2001
Gutenberg & Edison - Part I
Gutenberg & Edison - Part II
Everything Is Initially Prohibited Somewhere
Cutting Edge Skills Essential

 


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